The Copenhagen Group has established a comprehensive new strategy to combat illegal gambling and suspicious betting activities across Europe following its tenth meeting in Nicosia, conducted under the Macolin Convention framework.
The strategic gathering brought together regulatory authorities and integrity experts to address the evolving challenges facing sports betting markets, with España participating through the DGOJ. The meeting's agenda centred on the growing impact of artificial intelligence and prediction markets on sector integrity.
New Leadership and AI-Driven Monitoring
Samuel Wahlberg from the Swedish regulatory authority has assumed the presidency of the Copenhagen Group, outlining clear priorities for the organisation's future direction.
“Convert alerts into investigations and increase the number of national platforms, while improving existing ones”
— Samuel Wahlberg, Copenhagen Group President
According to the decision report, 32% of regulatory bodies are already utilising artificial intelligence for market monitoring. However, the group warns that criminal networks are employing these same tools for identity manipulation purposes.
Implementation Timeline
Regulatory authorities planning AI adoption should note that current implementation stands at 32% penetration across European markets. The Copenhagen Group's emphasis on converting alerts into investigations suggests a two-phase approach: detection capability development followed by enforcement capacity building.
FIFA 2026 Presents Enhanced Risks
Detection of irregularities has shown positive evolution in football friendlies, with a recorded decrease in the number of matches under suspicion this year. However, attention has now turned to the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2026, which introduces a 48-team format that presents significantly higher risk levels, particularly during the group stage.
To address this challenge, pilot projects utilising machine learning will be launched to detect atypical patterns in derivative markets and prediction markets.
Prediction Platform Concerns
The Copenhagen Group has expressed concern over the rise of prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, considering them integrity risks due to their opacity and vulnerability to insider information abuse.
Social Responsibility Focus
In the social responsibility sphere, the group highlighted a study revealing that 7.5% of footballers are probable problem gamblers – a rate four times higher than the general population. This finding has led to the creation of a specific working group led by Portugal.
Looking Ahead to Vilna
The meeting concluded with focus on the upcoming Macolin Week in Vilnius, where the first thematic report on AI and the training programme for national integrity platforms is expected to be presented.
Strategic Implications for European Markets
The Copenhagen Group's new roadmap signals a fundamental shift in how European regulators approach technological threats to betting integrity. The dual challenge of criminal networks leveraging AI while regulators simultaneously deploy the same technology for monitoring creates an arms race dynamic that will likely intensify ahead of major sporting events.
The specific focus on prediction markets reflects growing regulatory awareness of these platforms' potential to undermine traditional betting oversight mechanisms. With 32% of authorities already implementing AI monitoring systems, the pressure increases on remaining jurisdictions to modernise their surveillance capabilities or risk becoming weak links in the European integrity network.
