SOFTSWISS has released comprehensive research on prediction markets, providing iGaming operators with data-driven insights into a category that has transformed from niche trading to mainstream wagering opportunity.
The 'Prediction Markets: From Trading to Betting' report traces the evolution from 15th-century papal election betting to today's platforms processing billions in monthly volume. Monthly volume surged from $32 million in January 2024 to $12.6 billion by January 2026 – a growth trajectory that has caught industry attention.
Competitive Landscape Analysis
The report maps the competitive field, from established platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi to the first iGaming-native launches scheduled for 2025 and 2026. Drawing on data from Dune, Keyrock, TRM Labs, and Blask, it provides demand signal analysis across five key markets: the US, UK, Ireland, Australia, and Canada.
Sports emerges as the highest-value event category on both major platforms. Four of the ten most profitable Polymarket wallets traded predominantly on sports between January and March 2026, generating $22 million in combined profit.
"Monthly volume grew from $32m in January 2024 to $12.6bn in January 2026 – a scale shift the industry can no longer afford to dismiss. That is no longer a trend – it is a fully formed product category. And critically, almost none of that volume has flowed through traditional operators."
— Alexander Kamenetskyi, Head of Operations at SOFTSWISS Sportsbook
Data Sources
The SOFTSWISS research draws from multiple industry data providers including Dune for blockchain analytics, Keyrock for market making insights, TRM Labs for compliance intelligence, and Blask for trading metrics. This multi-source approach provides comprehensive market visibility across both traditional and decentralized prediction platforms.
Market Projections and Regional Variations
Bernstein projects the global market will reach $1 trillion by 2030, with 370% volume growth forecast by the end of 2026 alone. Demand signals vary significantly by jurisdiction – the US and UK show the steepest growth trajectories, while Canada and Australia are also expanding.
The report provides detailed regulatory mapping across North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania, highlighting different treatment approaches across jurisdictions.
| Market | Growth Trajectory | Regulatory Status |
|---|---|---|
| United States | Steepest growth | Detailed mapping provided |
| United Kingdom | Steepest growth | Detailed mapping provided |
| Canada | Expanding | Detailed mapping provided |
| Australia | Expanding | Detailed mapping provided |
| Ireland | Demand signals present | Detailed mapping provided |
Product Integration Framework
The research follows the launch of SOFTSWISS Prediction Markets, the provider's own solution for event-based wagering across politics, economics, sport, entertainment, and other categories. The fixed-odds model is designed for compatibility with existing iGaming licences and operator infrastructure, requiring no changes to familiar betting mechanics.
The product is available as a standalone iFrame widget or direct integration within the SOFTSWISS Sportsbook, with launch timelines of two to three days for existing partners.
Strategic Market Entry Considerations
The report's focus on sports betting overlap presents immediate opportunities for operators with existing sportsbook infrastructure. With traditional operators capturing minimal market share despite explosive growth, the window for strategic entry remains open.
However, regulatory complexity across jurisdictions demands careful navigation. The research highlights how different markets require distinct approaches, making comprehensive regulatory mapping essential for operators planning multi-jurisdiction launches. The question becomes whether traditional operators can adapt quickly enough to capture meaningful share in a rapidly maturing category.
According to SOFTSWISS.
